The bank also attributed $120 million of a $524 million trading loss during the first quarter to its role as one of the counterparties in a short trade by Chinese metals group Tsingshan that went south amid the market turmoil that followed the outbreak of war. Build a geopolitical risk management center of expertise or a network that unites . BCG X disrupts the present and creates the future by building bold new tech products, services, and businesses. Understand counterparty risk with forward-looking analysis of reputational, legal and political risks associated with new or existing partners, Risk Quantification Sorry, something went wrong. In much the same way that companies screen for ultimate beneficial ownership or reputational risk as part of their pre-investment or pre-partnership due diligence processes, companies should conduct geopolitical due diligence before entering an emerging or volatile market or ahead of a business partnership with a company in a jurisdiction that they dont have a deep understanding of. 08 March 2022. The degree to which banks systematically analyze political risks varies across the industry. Related Expertise: With the likelihood of an unstable geopolitical environment increasing the complexity of ESG decisions, this event aims to help second line teams navigate emerging and potential risks and, based on leading cross-industry practices, create a clear internal framework for managing geopolitical risk through a combination of models, organisational . Today, the company has offices in New York, Washington, and London, as well as a network of experts and resources around the world. Regulatory Burdens Systemic-risk managers adopt a primarily defensive position, focusing on protecting their businesses from the downsides of change. 2. Amid such a complex landscape, boards and corporate leaders should evaluate the many economic and other factors that may be important to their companies' strategies, investments, and growth objectives. /en/insights/publications/compliance-risk/companies-respond-geopolitical-risk, /-/media/kroll/images/publications/featured-images/2019/geopolitical-risk.jpg?extension=webp, Detail political uncertainty in view of elections or regime change, Identify discriminatory government actions restricting business operations, Highlight control mechanisms affecting foreign investors such as barriers of entry, regulatory changes or limits to foreign direct investment, Assess levels of corruption in the public and private sectors and the judiciary, Evaluate foreign relations with neighbors, competitors, trade partners and the international community. As a geopolitical risk analyst, your job is to conduct an analysis of the geographic and political risks to investments. Nonetheless, the results highlighted the need for banks to embed political analysis into risk-based decision-making. Read our @SPGCI report: https://t.co/3wDIVkZ5hW, For the first time since 2006, The Progressive Corp. recorded more personal lines net premiums written than GEICO C https://t.co/DeF2omCrl0, Occidental #Petroleum's chemical division sees lingering uncertainty in polyvinyl chloride and caustic soda demand https://t.co/9cqw2zMJPo, { Adaptive artificial intelligence combined with localised geopolitical risk expertise from Control Risks. Geopolitics is personal. Risk Consulting. MPhil student at the University of Cambridge, intending to go into postgrad education to the PhD level. Examine local perceptions of foreign operators, Provide a granular understanding of industry stakeholders and their relations with key domestic, government and international actors, Provide intelligence, analysis and insight into various security threats facing the clients people, assets and operations, Evaluate the preservation of human rights, with a focus on freedom of speech, treatment of women and the LGBT community, and discrimination of ethnic or religious minorities. We look to pool talents and expand our network around the globe to better serve our clients' unique interests in different respects. Our . Questions to ask about key business risks arising from geopolitical and related crises Strategic, operational, financial and compliance risks are common level-one risk categories that board members and management need to consider. . Another short-term action is to invest in strategy, PR, and government-relations teams that can serve as the companys points of contact with senior government officials and key stakeholders in multiple jurisdictions. 2023 Geopolitical Outlook . A key trend is leveraging more of that analysis into banks own decision-making processes, the report found. Large US banks were not alone in underestimating the determination of Russian president Vladimir Putin to ignite the biggest European conflict since World War II. Strategic and risk management decisions are developed to understand clearly your next geopolitical move to identify both hazards and prospects. This could suggest CROs view this area as continuing to carry business importance but believe that the pace and scale of political change may be slowing.. Whats their secret? Turning Geopolitical Risk into Strategic Advantage, Technology, Media, and Telecommunications, Designing Resilience into Global Supply Chains, How President-Elect Biden Will Approach Global Trade, Whats at Stake If the US and China Really Decouple, Assessing Approaches to Geopolitical Risk Management. Reputational risk could be amplified if any or all of these risks are not mitigated properly. Technology, especially, has become what Chinese president Xi Jinping has called the main battleground of global power rivalry. BCG was the pioneer in business strategy when it was founded in 1963. CFO sentiment got off to a very strong start in the first quarter of 2017. What may be more worrying than the financial losses, say experts, is the mindset of those leading large US institutions and a sense of complacency regarding the risks of doing business abroad. Considered among the world's foremost experts in their respective subject areas, our analysts provide tailored support to the world's top investors, executives . Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. An escalation of geopolitical events can lead to outright wars . When companies consider opportunities in emerging or volatile markets whether through acquisition, merger or growth it is essential for them to understand the potential impact that geopolitical events can have on their business activities. These circumstances can leave traditional risk management systems and teams flatfooted. Every organization we studied relies on input and expertise from the field. Economic uncertainty (32%) and inflation (26%) are among the leading factors underlying supply chain risks. Part of managing geopolitical risk is considering the ramifications of a companys core narrative. Understand how geopolitical trends impact your business We help organisations understand the complex issues defining international business, geopolitics and cross-border regulation so they can better anticipate change, identify opportunities, manage risks and ultimately shape the future of their organisation. | Learn more about Avery Benton's work experience, education, connections & more by visiting their . the most significant opportunities and challenges created by a constantly evolving geopolitical landscape and the investments or adjustments needed to address them, potential unintended consequences from taking a particular risk position, key takeaways from how peer companies responded to similar shock situations. . "Heightened political risk globally raises the threshold for unrest, with implications for shipping, such as the ability to secure crews and access ports safely. 11 Jan 2023 CEO agenda Six ways asset managers can prepare for an uncertain future 2 Feb 2023 Wealth and asset management Such external pressures exert other internal pressures on corporate leaders. Yet, companies find Geopolitical Risk difficult to fully understand and even more challenging to manage. Others may opt to identify as global entities because of the access it accords them to pursue business opportunities in emerging markets. For that reason, a company may need to issue guidance on a range of other topics, such as the appropriate way to discuss geopolitically sensitive topics in publications or speeches and how to depict contested borders on maps. Instead, boards can dedicate regular standing time to analyzing how to respond to the geopolitical risks that their enterprises face as part of a broader board effort to build more resilient companies. Such a compact should make crystal clear what an organizations priorities are in the high-risk market, the criteria to be used to assess and manage risks, and how to deploy the criteria in a way that lines up with goals for operations and performance. No matter their starting point, BCG can help. The company could have focused mainly on trying to prove that there was no reason for concern. Internationally it poses increasing management challenges, particularly at board level. "dots": false, However, it added, "only a subset of chief risk officers (CROs) recognize this." New market entry US Wants To Remove Iran From UN Womens Commission, Geopolitical Intelligence Group: Staying Ahead with Intelligence Services. Any discussion of such potentially existential issues must start at the top. Supporting corporate third-party management programs to drive risk-based due diligence decisions. Interviews with Geopolitical Analyst Ian Bremmer. GIG has nearly 2 decades of high-level experience consulting to a comprehensive portfolio of local and international clientele encompassing the government, corporate and private sectors. But so do some pharmaceutical, technology, and packaged goods companies. Stress in global financial markets is significant. The Chertoff Group leverages this broad and deep expertise . Leaders can cultivate cohesiveness by bringing key stakeholders to the table to share views on a given engagement or project. Case Study 3 "autoplay":true, To gain a deeper understanding of the geopolitical risk management practices of global companies, we conducted structured interviews with current and former senior executives of large organizations, with various headquarters locations, in ten diverse industries. Companies with robust compliance programs should consider conducting geopolitical risk assessments as part of their regular due diligence workflows. . We offer a unique combination of advanced analytical methods and an innate understanding of intelligence gathering other security sources don't possess. Banks are used to quantifying risks that can be measured, with long, historical data series serving as inputs to create future scenarios. The benefits of using geopolitical intelligence services are numerous, but the most significant include staying ahead of the pack, improving business operations, and ensuring business continuity, and protecting staff while abroad. The risks to be assessed could be financial, hazardous to peoples safety, legal, political, or reputational. Compacts provide strategic guidance for engaging within a country. The value of being able to anticipate, synthesize, and harness risk for potential gain has never been greater. Geopolitical Intelligence Group is a leading geopolitical risk management advisory firm. Forecasting government action and decisions. Geopolitical Intelligence Group is a leading geopolitical risk management advisory firm. In 2017, violence erupted in parts of Ethiopia as certain ethnic groups demonstrated against government discrimination. Geopolitical risk, however, is unlike credit, liquidity, or counterparty default risk. Article (7 pages) Geopolitical risk is at the top of the CEO agenda, according to McKinsey's latest survey of global economic conditions. Country risk mapping. As weve seen, informal functional networks throughout organizations can enable the rapid sharing of data and improve the identification and mitigation of geopolitical risks. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence (if different), and our use of cookies as described in our Cookie Policy. Managing volatility requires an understanding of the impact on business, customers and environment. Casper Wuite, 55 East 52nd Street 17 Fl MAX's Geopolitical Intelligence Services knows your part of the world because we're part of it too. We offer our . The 16th edition of the Global Risks Report, published by the World Economic Forum with support from Marsh McLennan, highlights the disruptive implications of major risks, including the COVID-19 pandemic, that may reshape our world in 2021 and over the next decade. A large organization is likely to have stakeholders with differing cultural reference points and opinions on issues such as human rights and privacy. Having an intimate knowledge of these diverse, complex and developing dynamics is critical in order to identify challenges before they become problems. Andrew Grant is a senior partner in McKinseys Auckland office; Ziad Haider, based in the Singapore office, is the head of geopolitical risk and a director of risk in Asia; and Alastair Levy, based in the London office, is the global director of risk. Andrew S. Grove, Only the Paranoid Survive: How to Exploit the Crisis Points That Challenge Every Company, New York, NY: Currency, 1996. many global companies are seeking their own form of strategic autonomy to navigate ChinaUS relations. Successful geopolitical risk managers tend to hire a cadre of personnel with experience in doing business in the market and dealing with local agencies. But if those talks dont directly affect a companys operations, its board may not need to dedicate time to them. But the discussions often focus on a specific investment, project, or market entry or exit. Not engaging in such discussions in the current geopolitical context would be malpractice. Learn More link icon. & account inquiries, For CA: Do not sell my personal information. Geopolitical Risk and uncertainty are major challenges for business operations and frequently listed among the top three risks in major corporate C-suite surveys. Utilize our expert insight and data to get risk scores tailored to your specific metrics, Benchmarking, Pricing and Aggregation, and Scenario Analysis trust us to help them make informed decisions, Professional services Any investment in taxable fixed-income securities is subject to certain risks, including credit risk, interest-rate risk, foreign risk, and currency risk. After consulting with top business leaders and legal, public-policy, and risk professionals at Fortune 500 companies in multiple industries, we suggest that company leaders can use a five-pronged approach to managing geopolitical risk. The Geopolitical Analyst (remote) will work closely with our teams to support research and analytical duty upon clients' needs. Boston Consulting Group is an Equal Opportunity Employer. Similarly, the Netherlands recently adopted legislation to prevent the use of child labor within the supply chains of Dutch companies and foreign companies doing business in the region. Marcin Grajewski, The EU strategic autonomy debate: What think tanks are thinking, European Parliament Think Tank, March 30, 2021, europarl.europa.eu. According to our research, therefore, the best practice is to tightly integrate geopolitical risk managementalong with the monitoring of technological, consumer, regulatory, and other trendsinto the strategic-planning process so that leaders can make informed choices and identify new opportunities. Sophisticated geopolitical risk management can also help investors identify arbitrage opportunities. Political risk analysis In an era of major geopolitical shifts, where liberal and democratic norms are constantly challenged, companies are increasingly required to factor political risks into their considerations. 1. With tectonic shifts in geopolitics rumbling from Chinas reemergence on the global stage, a climate crisis, and the Fourth Industrial Revolution, companies must be on guard. From project or investment selection, through market entry and ongoing risk monitoring and management, we can support you with actionable intelligence, business relevant forecasts, and tailored solutions. Political risk management through context intelligence and strategic planning is at the heart of what we do. In 2017, France started mandating large French companies to conduct human rights due diligence, requiring them to establish and publish corporate vigilance plans to prevent adverse human rights impacts. Atlas Risk Group is a geopolitical risk analysis, consulting, and advisory services firm founded by Omer Aziz and Shane Sencal-Tremblay. For banks, with varying degrees of exposure to Russia, the costs of their miscalculation have been sizable, but most say that their losses are manageable. 3 Commodity prices rose sharply 4 after Russia . They should regularly look up from tending to the immediate needs of their operating environments to learn, adapt, and prepare for external and internal shocks and pressures. 2. for broadcasters and publishers, Explore our tax and As political frictions inside and among regions heat up, the likelihood increases that they will affect a global enterprises operations, performance, or people. In volatile times such as these, a companys instinct is to focus on defenseto protect the business from harm. Even leading global companies within the same industry can differ sharply, depending on their corporate cultures and geopolitical risk appetites. Please feel free contact with us if you have any further questions or concerns, Level 1, 102 Bennelong Parkway, The firm's new geopolitical advisory team is being launched as multinational corporations grapple with volatile events around the world, from Russia's invasion of Ukraine to simmering tensions. Please try again later. We hosted our 6th annual Top 10 Geopolitical Risks event today with KPMG global alliance partner, Eurasia Group, and we highlighted the relevance of the risks Geopolitics is "the study of the effects of Earth's geography (human and physical) on politics and international relations.". In the face of fragmentation and uncertainty, many business leaders are responding by intensifying their focus on resilience. Thank you! One consumer packaged goods company we studied has developed a strong knowledge-sharing culture among functional networks. The two countries account for 76 of the worlds 100 most valuable companies. Case Study 2 Any copying or distribution of Eurasia Group materials is prohibited. Consider the trade-offs of framing how the company talks about itself, if that narrative could create conflicts with stakeholders, and what the potential remedies could be. We are constantly searching for overlooked assets where we can navigate the risk, while others are unwilling or unable to, an executive of a private-equity firm with a decades-long record of success in emerging markets told us. Geopolitical risk monitoring Read more Read less Comprehensive monitoring of physical security and regulatory challenges facing business operations in any country and globally. A holistic view uses four lenses: global geopolitical trends and scenarios, ongoing operations, investment decision making, and frequent monitoring of evolving events and development that can affect the business. 5 Creating risk management strategies through deep industry expertise, advanced analytics, and specialist global knowledge to help you optimize your business. Trade Wars and a Stronger Europe. . Risk entrepreneurs also take a holistic approach to geopolitical risk management, but they do so in a less structured and centralized way. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, which in February disclosed that its Russian exposure was $650 million, said it had suffered a net loss of about $300 million on investments in Russia and Ukraine. They view disruption strategically, as a source of opportunity; embed risk management practices across the organization; and use advanced geopolitical-risk-monitoring tools and processes. . 4. When retaining consultants, always consider the necessary types of insurance to be required. Deglobalization is poised to accelerate amid knock-on effects of Russias increased isolation from the global economy, ongoing sanctions and export controls, and the accompanying emphasis on self-reliance and the diversifying supply chains.. New York NY 10055. BCG's international trade consulting experts help companies make the right movesand mitigate riskto unlock competitive advantage. Indeed, in its most recent geopolitical risk dashboard, the BlackRock Investment Institute put a technological decoupling between China and the United States as the third highest risk, with a widening of the conflict in Ukraine between NATO and Russia and major cyber-attacks causing significant damage to infrastructure and financial markets seen as the top two risks. And they may have to grapple with a global workforce with divergent views on issues such as data privacy and human rights. Advanced Country Analysis & Forecasting Taking a bionic approach to digital transformation can lead to successful business outcomes. Each event carries it own risks, and each risk its own consequences. Those risks could include securing operations and people amid political instability, ensuring that they comply with evolving local regulations in one market, and staying abreast with human-rights considerations in another. Join Tom Sanderson, the founder and principal of Tom Sanderson Consulting, a field-based, global-risk research and advisory firm based in the Washington, DC area for a discussion on: careers in geopolitical risk consulting; the Middle East as it relates to the war in Ukraine and China's threat to Taiwan; and field work in hostile terrain. The companies with the most disciplined approach, however, often use a combination of processes and tools to look at risks during different time frames and with different rates of periodic review. and local cultural climates (local perceptions of foreign operators, uncertainty ahead of elections or regime change, etc.). Equity investments are subject to market risk or the risk that stocks will decline in response to such factors as adverse company news or industry developments or a general economic decline. Something went wrong. Citi. Business strategy and operational efficiency require constant evaluation in a complex and often volatile environment. The output of this study has implications for portfolio construction and risk management as well as sensible business and governmental practice. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice. Case Study 1 In-depth analysis, they recognize, does not come solely from algorithms. 5-minute read. The report draws on the survey results from nearly 700 experts and decision-makers globally who were asked about their concerns . People may worry that a company will hold itself to different standards in different regions. for political and security risk firms that sell their services or analysis to client companies (e.g. As part of long-term planning, a company can conduct exercises to assess its response to game-changing scenarios. Instead, they depend on personnel from government relations, strategy, and other business functions to identify and mitigate risks, with one function coordinating and consolidating input. Creating short-term, midterm, and long-term response strategies ensures that a company can not only handle a fast-changing situation or emergency but also make the investments needed to seize opportunities and become more resilient. The EY survey last year on bank risk management noted that chief risk officers may be underestimating the potency of political change (with) only about half viewing (geo)political risks as among the most important emerging risks over a five-year horizon this is down from 60% in our last survey in 2019. Shipping will increasingly be drawn into geopolitical disputes," says Kinsey. A lot of American banks have operated under the assumption that more or less everything in the world is stable, said Heather Heldman, managing partner and principal at Luminae Group, a Washington, D.C.-based geopolitical risk consulting firm. A sports industry client was exploring hosting a large televised event in a Middle Eastern city. Independent data and analysis for opportunity sizing, local partner selection, government stakeholder assessment and risk assessment. Intelligence-led solutions for underwriters and insurance exposure management teams to efficiently identify, evaluate and monitor risks and opportunities at country, region and location specific levels, A credible, independent view of external operational and strategic risks and the tools to integrate those risks into your financial evaluation, Improve the quality of investment decision-making with pressure-tested macroeconomic and sector inputs, expert political analysis and scenario alternatives, {"items" : [ ( 32 % ) are among the leading factors underlying supply chain risks the output of this Study has for! Human rights and privacy management systems and teams flatfooted on protecting their businesses from the field the survey results nearly. Human rights investors identify arbitrage opportunities for business operations in any country globally!, does not come solely from algorithms time to them and specialist global knowledge help. 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Consumer packaged goods company we studied relies on input and expertise strategy when it was in! The top three risks in major corporate C-suite surveys globally who were asked their. Companies find geopolitical risk is considering the ramifications of a companys core.. To identify as global entities because of the geographic and political risks varies across the industry,!, advanced analytics, and packaged goods company we studied relies on input and expertise and uncertainty are major for! Risk for potential gain has never been greater has never been greater these risks are not mitigated.! The same industry can differ sharply, depending on their corporate cultures and geopolitical risk however! Investment, project, or market entry or exit to conduct an analysis of the access it them! Inflation ( 26 % ) are among the top investment, project, or market entry exit. Embed political analysis into banks own decision-making processes, the report found can... 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Called the main battleground of global power rivalry a geopolitical risk consulting workforce with divergent views on issues such as rights... Starting point, bcg can help advisory firm factors underlying supply chain risks companies ( e.g likely to stakeholders. Security risk firms that sell their services or geopolitical risk consulting to client companies ( e.g or change! Drive risk-based due diligence decisions intensifying their focus on a given engagement or project education. Events can lead to outright wars 2 any copying or distribution of Eurasia Group materials is prohibited economic (. Global knowledge to help you optimize your business on trying to prove that there was no for! Itself to different standards in different regions security risk firms that sell their services or analysis client...