Thus, there appears to be a Shemitah Effect that manifests itself as negative economic pressure upon the economy of the United States, and since the U.S. economy typically reflects what is happening in the world, this effect likely occurs worldwide as well. Since he used every major upturn and downturn in the stock market, bond market, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the analysis, his conclusions were that there was very little statistical significance of the Shemitah Effect on these indicators. Time Cycles Got It Right; What Do They Say Now? hewn stones." Many economists and others who study the global financial systems have wondered why major downturns in the economy seem to happen in early fall, especially in the months of September and October. All of you shall have the sabbath products of the land for food; yourself, and your male and female slaves, and your hired man and your foreign resident, those who live as aliens with you. The law only required that no one actually plant, harvest, and sell the crops for that year, but that the fruit of the aftergrowth would be available for all to access and consume without charge. Now lets have a look at the more recent stock market crashes we have seen. Although this represents a majority of Shemitah years over this time frame, the remaining ones which occurred in 1923-1924, 1944-1945, 1951-1952, 1958-1959, 1979-1980, and 1993-1994 represent times when the market either grew or stayed mostly unchanged. Another way of analyzing the Shemitah Effect on the Dow Jones Average is to look at the 20 largest point drops in the stock market during single day crashes. All performance results have been compiled solely by Reppond Investments, Inc. and are from sources we believe to be reliable. Selectively cherry-picking from data sets can result in seeing an effect that is not really there. You shall thus consecrate the fiftieth year and proclaim a release through the land to all its inhabitants. So even though a Shemitah year would end in the fall on Elul 29, the next harvest would not occur until at least 7-8 months later. The lack of an absolute correlation to stock market crashes shouldnt come as a surprise, however. Adrian Zenz performed a more rigorous statistical analysis of the Shemitah Effect in a paper published in August, 2015 (see http://bit.ly/1LNdeKE). Affiliate Login, The Shemitah Cycle Stock Market crash in 2021, Correlation Bitcoin dominance and the Bitcoin price. Since the majority of Shemitahs end up occurring during an economic downturn, it is easy to get the impression that the Shemitah Effect is the cause. According to recent publications, some authors have claimed that there really is such a force at work in our world. The S&P 500 has posted a mild recovery since its bear market lows in mid-2022, when it fell more than 25% from its high. and lie still." Moreover, the amplitude between the peaks and troughs is growing, meaning that the destructive power of the crashes is also growing. Weve gotten our money back, thanks to the complaints help we got!Eternally grateful!!! This year Sukkot has an added dimension, as it falls during the seventh year of our agricultural cycle, Shmita. Founder slams mozilla foundation cryptocurrency. Vi har ftt igjen pengene vre, takket vre klagehjelpen vi fikk!Evig takknemlige!!! Is it a coincidence that nearly every economic panic or depression in the US has occurred during or right after a shmita year? Six years you shall sow your field, and six years you shall prune your vineyard and gather in its crop. tower foreshadowed the rise of America, what does the fall of a tower foreshadow? THIS IS JUST ENTERTAINMENT!This information is what was found publicly on the internet. 1916-1917 Year of Shemitah - Stock market drops 40%. The Shemitah years of 1972-1973, 1979-1980, 1986-1987, 2000-2001, and 2007-2008 all correspond to concurrent or subsequent increases in the unemployment rate. In this way we gain 1930-1931: The Great Depression, the worst financial crisis in human history. I call this proposition the Shemitah Effect, after a Biblical law and the Jewish name that is used to describe it. but during the seventh year the land shall have a sabbath rest, a sabbath to the Lord; you shall not sow your field nor prune your vineyard. She said it was the last year of a seven-year cycle according to Jewish legend. Please use the following structure: example@domain.com, Send me The Times of Israel Daily Edition. It was easier for Israel to simply overlook this law rather than to risk not having enough food for over a year at a time or risk losing money by having to forgive debt or give back land. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts. Compared to non-Shmita years, that is significantly different (p < 0.05) than the 24% probability of negative years for the years leading up to the sabbatical year. The table above is interesting enough, as it mentions a list of historical events. he does point out one remarkable fact: the final day of both of the last two shmita years saw two of the three largest falls in history (measured in points not in per cent) of the US stock market. Among the many cycles described in the Bible, we find the seven-year-cycle, ending with a sabbath year (shemita); simply put, a year where you let the land rest. We will also not be able to get rich off of playing the Shemitah cycles to our advantage. What might be more insteresting at least for some is trying to understand how our economic system is constructed and how it works. In addition, Zenz also considered a more restricted analysis by using only the 2-month Elul-Tishri Shemitah ending months and the Shemitah wake period in his calculations, just like Cahn focused on in his book. But it never does. For instance, there were severe declines in the market in 1907 and 1929 (as a percent decline), but both of these occurred in the middle of a Shemitah cycle and not during the Shemitah year itself or during its wake. Once the Jews were in their land, the Lord would similarly provide an increase in their crops to get them through the Shemitah year with no difficulty. We are about to experience two events described in the Bible, called the end of the sabbath year and the yubilee year. The observance of the Shemitah was meant to be good for Israel and for the Jewish people, because it was another time of rest built into their lives by the Lord. Leaving aside Cahans highly dubious theology, (since when did George Washington or the other Founding Fathers have a direct line to the divine?) Mike Maloney is a smart guy, but hes just a man with a view just take a look on his favourite crypto, Hedera Hashgraph (episode 8). In the wake of the last crash, leading economists such as Nobel Prize winners George Akerlof and Robert Shiller have picked up on Keynes long-neglected insights and developed the field of Behavioral Economics, explaining how quirks of human psychology can help explain the persistence of economic cycles, and much else. When the United States is consumed by greed and ignores these biblical. In addition, if the poor sold their property because they needed the money, their family would eventually be assured of gaining it back at the Jubilee. I AM NOT AN EXPERT! February 27, 2023 12:09 pm EST. America is the most powerful nation in the history of the world. The war is far away, money isnt a big problem for us living in the wealthiest countries at least not yet. Two of the three calendar patterns are bullish, including the one in which we put the most stock (pun intended): The Presidential Election Cycle. Britain, the world's greatest empire was almost bankrupt. The enormity of the preceding mania and its vicious unwind have us believing the current bear could unfold over a much lengthier time than is typical. Now we have the concept that this occurs in our stock markets, where every seven years, the market faces rapid downward deviations and is a party to some of the most famous market crashes in history. From my perspective, its all quite weird. We are in the middle of an economic crisis, but things dont actually look to bad on the surface. STOCK MARKET COLLAPSE END OF 2022!? Thus, every year some seeds would drop to the ground during harvest and result in new plants growing the next year. If we continue the upwards trend entering 2021, approaching September we should pay attention. In addition, the Year of Jubilee would bring a release of property throughout all of Israel. Press J to jump to the feed. 1972-1973 Shmita Year - 48% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. On the seventh year there was to be no sowing, or harvesting any crops whatsoever to let the land rest for one year (Leviticus 25:1-5). God often operates within the realm of probabilities in such a way that He makes it difficult or impossible for us to absolutely predict the future. Sukkot, Shmita and a stock market crash? Both dates were the eve of Rosh Hashanah on the final day of a shmita year. It just so happens that the latest Shemitah year occurred during the years 2014-2015, and it ended on September 13, 2015. Please note that the posts on The Blogs are contributed by third parties. The year 2022 on the Jewish calendar is a Shmita yearhistorically considered to be a year of rest, or sabbatical, following six years of work. His writings and talks about the Shemitah are very interesting, and at least they should be read and understood by every Christian. The Jews observe this weekly Sabbath starting at sundown on Friday evening through sundown on Saturday. Ben Reppond(406) 871-3321ben@reppondinvestments.comLearn how we manage money: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4IdPxtjBYo\u0026t=3220sInstagram: @benreppondBloomberg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hA3IkauON4CNBC Joe Kernanhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BlmLyfx5tcECNBC Scott Wapnerhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nb1cGFjXXtYJonathan CahnThe Mystery of the Shemitahhttps://www.amazon.com/Mystery-Shemitah-Updated-000-Year-Old-Future/dp/1629994707Produced By http://www.thepyrostudios.comDISCLOSURESThis presentation is for informational purposes only and is not an offer of or solicitation of advisory services. As Israel implodes, does nobody in Netanyahus Likud have the guts to defy him? This rest also applies to the cycles of weeks The US has inherited the Biblical blessings and curses. Thus, the agricultural effect occurs during the entire year and immediately thereafter, whereas the effect from the debt release occurs only at the end of the year and its wake. Your email address will not be published. blessings and power come only from God - without them they must eventually fall. This was before the war in Ukraine and the exponential price growth of several crucial commodities, which are all said to be consequences of the war. All during this one Shmita year. Why stocks. The Largest Percent Changes in the Dow Jones industrial Average, RankDateCloseNet Change% ChangeShemitah Years or Wake11987-10-191738.74508.0022.6121929-10-28260.6438.3312.82 31899-12-1858.277.9411.99 41929-10-29230.0730.5711.73 51929-11-06232.1325.559.92 61932-08-1263.115.798.40 71907-03-1476.236.898.29 81987-10-261793.93156.838.0492008-10-158577.91733.087.87101933-07-2188.717.557.84 111937-10-18125.7310.577.75122008-12-018149.09679.957.70132008-10-098579.19678.917.33141917-02-0188.526.917.24151997-10-277161.15554.267.18 161932-10-0566.075.097.15 172001-09-178920.7684.817.13181931-09-24107.798.207.07191933-07-2096.267.327.07 202008-09-2910365.45777.686.98. The Sabbath year or Shemitah was not only to include a cessation of agricultural activity, but also an elimination of debt within the economy. The coming world leader, Antichrist rules from the revived Roman Empire of Europe and the Middle East in the last days (Dan 2:41,42, 7:24,25). The cherry-picking effect is often the outcome of seeing a pattern related to some phenomenon or data set, but not going further to rigorously analyze the data in the proper way to see if it is real. Since God is the true source of all that we havefood, material goods, property, money, and everything elsea cessation of work forced the people into a time of complete faith and dependence on Him. What this meant is that any person or family that sold their property to another Hebrew would get their property back at the end of every 7 Shemitahs. Yet the charts suggest that, although we are desperate to deny it, such a rhythm is obstinately embedded in human economic life. If the rise of a It will be determined this year. The new tower raised up from Ground Zero has If this force really exists, it might actually impact the valuation of stock markets, investments, and currencies on a recurring basis. The cycles of the Shemitah and Jubilee releases would therefore continue to smooth out the ups and downs of the economy and reduce the extreme differences between the rich and poor. United States enters WWI. It would also prevent lower income families from sliding down further into poverty, because the seventh year would provide free food and an elimination of any debt they may have incurred. It can be a fearful thing to turn away from self-reliance in getting what you need and become completely reliant on God, especially if you have no faith. The length of these cycles is reliably between six and nine years. The aftereffects of a Shemitah year should continue to be felt during the first year of the next Shemitah cycle, because the debt release occurs on the last day of the year. 1916 1917: Stock market drop 40% and many European countries are suffering an economic collapse. This is wsb content right here. The implication is that just as there is a rhythm to the work week whereby activity needs to be punctuated by periods of rest, so too, a parallel rhythm pertains over a seven year cycle; we need periods of rest and renewal. This widespread effect resulted in downturns or recessions built into Israels economy at regular intervals, which obviously had other consequences beyond just affecting farming families. A more in depth analysis would conclude that breathing has nothing to do with eventual death, even if everyone who breaths does eventually die. If you make a sale, moreover, to your friend or buy from your friends hand, you shall not wrong one another. Zenzs method of analyzing the full data set thus differed from Cahns method of only looking at whether an economic downturn occurred during a Shemitah year. Understanding that I am trying to correlate a Christian calendar with the Jewish Calendar, here are the past Shmita years where data (from Robert Shiller) are available: As one can see, some of the great crashes in American history occurred during these Shmita years, but are these significant? We are in a high-inflationary environment and a dysfunctional legislative branch. Here are examples of stock market crashes that occurred during Shemitah years, 1901-1902 Year of Shemitah - Stock market drops almost 50%. This effect was felt early in the Shemitah year and continued until the first planting season of the next seven-year cycle. But in practice, most of us, including eminent economists, forget. After all, its just a day like any other day. As you might expect, the occurrence of a super-Shemitah produced significant effects on the economy and on every Jewish citizen of Israel. Depending on the trend in the stock market I do think this year could be a remarkable year in the history of our economy. The biggest Wall Street crash of 1987 happened during Shemitah and so did the bond market carnage of 1994. People are in the middle of a great crisis that continues to increase, but theyre still fat and happy. We are in a high-inflationary environment and a dysfunctional legislative branch. It shall be a jubilee for you, and each of you shall return to his own property, and each of you shall return to his family. Required fields are marked *. You may wonder how Israel could ever eliminate a year of planting and not run out of food, because the effect of the Shemitah would actually result in at least a 1.5-year interim between harvests. In the year 2007-2008 we have seen the fall of the Lehman brothers which led to the housing market crash and recession. Yields on 30-year Treasuries jumped some 200 basis points in the first nine months of the year, hammering investors and financial firms, not to mention thrusting Mexico into crisis and bankrupting Orange County. If the Shemitah Effect not only affects Israel because of the Law of Moses, but also affects the United States and the rest of the world, then we might be able to see its effects throughout the financial realm as it repeats every seven years. This one-year extended rest would also help the soil recover from constant farming of the same crops, which can take important nutrients out of the earth. If you just look at the stock prices, things dont look bad stocks continue to rise. This 1.5-year delay occurs, because crops require the wet winter months in Israel to grow and are generally harvested in the springtime or early summer. Similarly, if someone bought a plot of land, then at the Year of Jubilee he would be required to freely return the property to its original owner (at no charge). This result is close to a 65% correlation of stock market downturns to the Shemitah year or its wake. People simply cannot be wrong for long. Dividends and income are included in the index returns. It is the concept that one should allow the land to go fallow, and let it rest. The S\u0026P 500 is a trademarked term of the McGraw Hill Company, and index data was compiled from sources we believe to be reliable. In addition, the law of the Shemitah allowed for all people and animals to eat freely of the opportunistic crops which grew during the Sabbath year. It is not surprising, therefore, that there are downturns in the market which occur outside of a Shemitah year. You are to do the same with your vineyard and your olive grove.. The greater the number of years left before the next Jubilee, the greater would be the value of the land and therefore the price. In the Law of Moses, there was one other instance where a set of seven time periods had an important affect upon Israel and their economy. In fact, since 1950, the. In this sense, we might expect to see periods of severe economic decline outside of a Shemitah period as the evil built into the economies of the world periodically breaks the system and creates downturns. Note: In that same chapter of Deuteronomy quoted from above, the Lord permitted Israel to loan money to foreigners without remission of the debt at the end of the Shemitah; only debts between Hebrews were to be forgiven every seven years. And more than that, did the Lord actually build a fundamental property into the functioning of nations and societies that produces a type of Shemitah Effect even if the nations dont follow or even know about the Shemitah or the Law of Moses? You shall then sound a rams horn abroad on the tenth day of the seventh month; on the day of atonement you shall sound a horn all through your land. We arent suggesting one pile into them with yields near 4% and inflation around 8%, but we think they have suffered a much more substantial de-rating than large-cap stocks. Lets look at this effect in more detail by considering more extensive data sets. With the most speculative year in U.S. stock market history drawing to a close, we could probably all use a rest. With that assertion, it is imperative to learn about the Shemitah Effect as we study End Times prophecy. 1937-1938 Shmita Year - 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. A Dashboard Update. This reflects the full Jewish day of Saturday (called Yom Shabbat or Sabbath Day) in which every day starts and ends at sundown. From these historical lessons, it can be said that the Shemitah can either be a blessing or a curse, depending on whether the nation followed God and these laws. Note: Unlike the seeds that are used for crops today, which have been engineered to grow once and the plant that sprouts produces no viable seeds so that farmers have to repeatedly buy more seed every planting season, the seeds that the Israelis used resulted in completely viable plants which produced vital seeds. Is it possible that the Bible provides the reason for this phenomenon as well as details on its origin and properties? declared that should America turn away from God, His blessings will be removed. (photo credit: AP Photo/Tsafrir Abayov). and yearsthe cycle of seven weeks (7x7) points to the 50th day - Pentecost. and the most physical collapse in American history as the two towers This was true regardless of how much debt was still owed or how many payments on the loan had or had not been made. He holds semicha, degrees from Oxford and Harvard and lives in Jerusalem with his wife and five children. He described within it, as part of a series of harbingers to judgment affecting the United States and the world, a concept related to an old Jewish law often called the Shemitah (The Harbinger, p. 153). Depending on the trend in the stock market I do think this year could be a remarkable year in the history of our economy. 1916-1917 Shmita Year - 40% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. I never trade solely based on time cycles but time cycles can give a great advantage of being able to look at the macro-perspective. Well, we dont really listen to them anymore not since the financial crisis but we still listen to the experts. If the nation followed God in the Shemitah and Jubilee, they would be prosperous and at rest in their land; however, if the nation turned away from God and didnt follow these laws, they would suffer the effects of the Shemitah as a judgment and with extremely negative consequences. The seventh year in the cycle is known as the sabbatical year, or "Shmita." Some of the biggest stock market pullbacks sync up with these sabbatical years. Unfortunately, some conclusions based upon Biblical cherry-picking often result in ideas that become so popular that overcoming them with real data is difficult. If the reset is not expected, (and it usually isnt), experience shows that it comes upon us anyway, as a nasty surprise. The Shemitah, however, would help smooth out economic ups and downs so that they would simply never occur catastrophically. For instance, in the following figure, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stretching from the year 1900 to the autumn of 2015 is mapped with the Shemitah years highlighted as transparent yellow bars on top of the curve. With the most speculative year in U.S. stock market history drawing to a close, we could probably all use a rest. This year is a different story. There are other cycles as well, like the moon phases and sunspot cycles and bitcoin does seem to have a clear correlation in terms of price. Seneca, one of the bien pensant opinion leaders of ancient Rome excoriated Shabbat as a wicked waste of time. Fruit that grew on trees could be picked by anyone and eaten. To research the Shemitah Effect, we need only to look at the historical economic trends that have occurred over the last century or so and see if major downturns correlate to Shemitah years. "But the seventh year thou shall let it rest By Cecilia Butini. The fact that the world is in a turmoil at the moment isnt exactly breaking news. The goal of the Shmita Project is to significantly raise awareness of the concept of shmita in Jewish tradition, both as a way to learn about how extraordinary and rich Jewish tradition is, and to animate conversation and change in the world, based on the values and teachings of shmita and focus on environmental sustainability, rest and overwork, We thought the MTIwith over 125 inputswas pretty exhaustive. Germany, Russia, Austria, Turkey and Great Britain suffer . Another important aspect of the Shemitah actually added to the effect of an agriculture-related downturn. Please invest accordingly. ". Of course the stock exchanges are experiencing problems, but most of the newly printed money end up in the exchanges, thus preventing the logical drop. How come his sensationalist shmita screed up there on the best-seller shelves and not my scrupulously researched (yet eminently readable) effort? For proof of this fact, Moses said that Israel would only have to remember the Exodus years in the wilderness of Sinai in which God miraculously supplied Manna to eat for 6 days out of every 7 for a total of 40 years. Seeing that the Shemitah Effect includes a year-long event related to the cessation of the agricultural market and an end-of-year effect related to the remission of debt (end-of-year in the Jewish Civil Calendar being in the September-October time frame in the Gregorian Calendar), if there exists any broader impact on the worlds economy this might be reflected in economic downturns during and immediately after these periods. This was before the war in Ukraine and the exponential price growth of several crucial commodities, which are all said to be consequences of the war. hewn stones. In other words, did God design not only Israels economy, but also the world economy to ideally function in much the same way that he instructed Israel through the Law? How can the Torahs idealistic instruction to cease agricultural labor for one year every seven apply to a 24/7 post-industrial reality? It is wise for us to attune our However, the Shemitah years represented by 1951-1952, 1958-1959, 1986-1987, 1993-1994, and 2014-2015 all occurred during times of low unemployment and with no subsequent rate increases. The year following the series of seven Shemitahs, or the 50th year, was designated the Year of Jubilee (called Yovel in Hebrew). The observance of the Shemitah obviously took faith in God to provide enough food during the previous six years to survive the seventh year with no additional planting. Towers symbolize a nation's power and pridethis connection can be seen from the very first % correlation of stock market drops 40 % and many European countries suffering... Our advantage `` but the seventh year thou shall let it rest,... Popular that overcoming them with real data is difficult value wiped out we. Use a rest cycle of seven weeks ( 7x7 ) points to the ground during harvest and in... Go fallow, and it ended on September 13, 2015 well as details on its and! 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